Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov told the BBC that Russia’s engagement in the rebel states after Georgia’s invasion was in response to the existing agreement with Georgia. The agreement is that Russia will station soldiers in the region and will intervene in the event of an escalation of violence.

The agreement was an accepted defense deal that involved Abkhazia, Ossetia, Georgia and Russia. The rebel forces in Abkhazia and Ossetia represented the two regions under the agreement. The late Georgian President Gamsakhurdia started a policy “Georgia for Georgians” and cancelled the given autonomies of Southern Ossetia, Adjaria and of Abkhazia. He brought his troops into these areas which resulted in the resistance from the Ossetia and Abkhazia forces and the Georgian army was wiped out of those regions.

It was then that after intense negotiations that a peacekeeping mechanism was established comprising Georgians, Ossetians and Russians. The peacekeeping force was established and this peacekeeping force has a mandate. The mandate is to make sure that there is no violation of peace in the zone of conflict and the peacekeepers are required by this document to prevent any violations and to put out any violations. This gives Russia the full authority and ‘obligation’ to ensure that the two autonomous regions – now break-away and are known as ‘Satellite’ Russian Republics – are safe and peaceful.

The military actions taken by the government of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili meant that Russia had to intervene under the agreement that still stands between Moscow and Tbilisi. Georgia attacked both military and civilian targets in an attempt at pushing away Russian citizens from the break-away republics. This resulted in Russia’s offensive in the regions and its push to break the Georgian republic in two.

Despite America’s efforts and France’s intervention in the conflict with diplomatic talks between both Russia and Georgia, the fact is the Georgian territory is now reduced considerably and this will be the case for a very long time to come. The Georgian situation is practically similar to the Cyprus Island where Turkey invaded the state in the mid-1970’s to establish a Turkish Cyprus state on the Island. This has been the reality of the Cyprus since then and there are little reasons to believe it will change any time soon.

The reasons for the Georgian attacks in Abkhazia and Ossetia can be explained in a few words. Recent Russian engagements in the break-away republics – building roads, towns and offering aid to the population as well as handing Russian passports to the people thus making the Ossetians and Abhkaz Russian citizens – offended Georgia. The Georgians thought this was a move to literally annex the republics.

Georgia saw this move by the Russians as a ‘punitive’ measure for Georgia’s interest to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) – a move that would practically mean limiting Russia’s access to the black sea too. As a Nato member, Georgia would have used its ‘western’ allies to grab the break-away republics from Russia’s control surely.

Being part of the Nato would also mean Georgia’s official entrance in the rank and file of the nations that are potentially hostile to the great Russian nation. That was definitely not what the Russians planned when they allowed communism to be folded in the former USSR. The plans to go Nato may be off the table for now for Georgia but Russia will surely make it certain that Georgia has learned their lessons from their mistake in attacking Ossetia. The peace treaty to be signed by the Georgians and Russians after the 5 days war in Ossetia will eventually set the pace for Russia to reign supreme in what is known as Eurasia.

The Russian invasion of Georgia has made it clear that Russia has taken the opportunity to shift the balance of power in Eurasia. The Nato lost the bid to set foot on Russia’s borders with the gaff that the US and Georgia committed. The US, drawn down in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and failing in the Middle East with Iran rising (Iran is a partner with Russia) while Pakistan is sinking in Asia, is now left to slander and rhetoric in its anti-Russian antes.

The US accused the Russians of enlarging the conflict and attacking Georgia. Washington is also saying Russia has damaged its reputation in the eyes of the international community while its place in the ‘civilized’ world is at stake thanks to its actions in Georgia. Besides the fact that not many people believes the US in this assessment of the situation, the Americans faced the criticism of rightful thinking people on the globe who pointed out that America was the one that violated all the rights and liberties when it illegally invaded Iraq and is still pursuing a war against the will of the Afghanistan people.

Ossetia and Abkhazia as well as the Ajarian republic has been a de-facto independent entity since the fall of the Soviet Union but true to the facts, they are pro-Russian and for that they were rewarded by Moscow. Russia safeguarded their territorial freedom and has now even boosted their rebellion against Georgia by its punitive invasion.

Many critics of the Russian nation will point out to Chechnya and will say that the Russians prevented the Chechens from becoming another break-away republic within the Russian state. The problem with Chechnya is that it was rebelling against Russia which is contrary to the situation in Ossetia and the other republics. Russia won the war in Chechnya – heavy handedly – but suffered much casualties altogether in the restive, rebel state where Muslims forms a majority of the population.

Chechen rebels failed to win against Russia because of the assistance and support the Russians received from the international community. The Americans were against the creation of a Chechen republic too and this did not help the Chechen in their rebellion against Moscow.

Nevertheless, the situation in the usually peaceful republics in the Georgian geopolitical landscape is also reminiscent of Kosovo, where the US imposed its will and caused a scission of the largely Muslim territory from Serbia. The Kosovo unilateral independence declaration is now the blue print that can be used to support the break-away states of Abkhazia, Ossetia and Ajaria.

 Russia had opposed the independence of Kosovo – a territory ravaged by wars waged by Serbians – on the basis that it was unconstitutional and was to the detriment of the Serbs. The US and the UN went against Russia in the Kosovo independence declaration but it is not comprehensible why the Americans and the UN are damn crazy against the independence of three mini-states that were violated by Georgia in the 1990’s.

The US is not as consistent as it claims to be – it claims to be very consistent while it says Russia is uncertain – in its foreign policy decisions. In one case it supports scission from Serbia while in another it supports Georgia to attack its break-away regions. In the Kosovo case, Washington pressed for the Kosovo independence to show Moscow that it could divide the former USSR territory in the face of the Kremlin. In Georgia, it lamentably supported the war waged by the Georgian president. This double measure does not make it look good for the US.

For the past few months, Russia was alone in trying to persuade the Georgian government to deliver on a commitment that it will not use force in the break-away republics. Russia offered a legally binding document that Georgia will not use force in Southern Ossetia.

This was an arrangement tempted to be agreed a year and a half ago within the Joint Control Commission between the Georgians and the Southern Ossetians. And then the Georgians violated this commitment and refused to sign such a document. Mr. Saakashvili recently said: “It is ridiculous to ask us to do this because Georgia will never use force against its own people. As simple as that.”

Unfortunately the western friends of Georgia who one way or another participated in the efforts to settle this conflict were also reluctant to pressure Tbilisi in order to have this legally binding document concluded. With the recent events, Russia has grown in stature and is now capable of dictating the terms of the Georgian surrender and altogether the future of the current president is at stake. He might have to resign and organize new elections to regain the confidence of the voters but this might turn against him for the strategic mistake he did in attacking the rebel safe heavens.

It now appears that Russia has struck many birds with one stone that was thrown at their glass house. They not only have Georgia sliced in two, they also have the Americans in tatters, cornered in their attempts to enlarge the Nato and dominate Russia on its land. The Europeans have now become the beggars who have to plead with Russia to keep the flow of gas and oil to their states since their options are narrow. The US and EU are planning a strategic response to the rise of Russia’s army into a regional power but the relevance of their response will be shattered by Russia’s new found dominance in the Caucasian region. It limits the expanding wings of the rising US empirical desires and crushes Europe’s egocentrism by showing them that they do not have the military readiness to harm Russia.

U.S. Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton had promised the Russians that NATO would not expand into the former Soviet Union Empire. That promise had already been broken in 1998 by NATO’s expansion to Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic — and again in the 2004 expansion, which absorbed not only the rest of the former Soviet satellites in what is now Central Europe, but also the three Baltic states, which had been components of the Soviet Union.

Then came the intent to enlarge Nato further by bringing in the Ukraine and Georgia. Indeed if this were to happen, it would be of great damaging effect to Russia’s overall security and prosperity hence the Russians could not allow this to happen altogether. Their forces now inside Georgia will ensure that this does not happen at all. It may be possible that some of the new-Nato members would want to reconsider their membership in the long run. Enlarging the Nato to bring it further in control of the Caucasus, Russia surely did not want the US to encircle it and break its resolve.

Russia has now almost subdued the west to the fact that it is master of its own territory and of the geopolitical realities in the Caucasian and the Eurasian region. Most of the countries that delimits the Russian periphery has also seen the might of the Russians and they will be compelled to shift their position to be more pro-Moscow. Mr Lavrov said to the BBC that Mr.Saakashvili is saying that Russia want to chop off part of Georgian territory. Lavrov explains that the Georgian president is also saying this is not about Georgia, this is about the future of Europe and that Russia is also making territorial claims to other countries, including the Baltic States.  Lavrov adds that Russia is facing territorial claims from some Baltic states but that his country want to sign the border treaty with Estonia which is the last remaining Baltic State, with which Russia do not have such a border treaty.

Russia has explained that it want to act strictly within the mandate given to the Russian peacekeepers and this mandate provides for the zone of conflict to be freed from any illegal armed groups except for peacekeepers themselves and the zone of conflict must keep the regime of protecting civilians. When civilians at this zone, when the peacekeepers’ forces in the zone of conflict are attacked from outside of course those sides from which the attacks are launched, we should not feel safe, that is for sure, said Lavrov.

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World War 3
written by Observers, August 25, 2008

It appears that a world war is not far. The US, with McCain as president, may just start a war against Russia. Obama too is not a man of peace by the ways he supported the Georgians. I fear we are heading for war and Russia better be prepared for that.

re-ww3
written by bulatif, August 26, 2008

I tots already ww3 (terror war). Russia is caught up in its support for US in terror war. Now US turns against Russia for its flaws like democracy and economic distribution etc. US will sure use all this to impress the world that Russia is bad. We know US is bad but they are strong n popular

The Blues
written by trueblue, August 26, 2008

I bet we see the blues if there is a war. Can the US start a war that it cannot win again? It can. Why? Because it is stupid and has stupid leaders. How to counter them? Be strong, be prepared, be at war even if there is no war yet. This applies to us Muslims too.

Mr.
written by Chee_Liek Ho, August 27, 2008

I am not pessimistic. The world is now evolving into a multi polar world. Hitherto it is a uni polar world and USA is the dominant centre, unilaterally imposing its policies, there fore its self interest, on the rest of the world. It considers that those who do not follow the USA's leadership, its model of government and its view that the rest of the world is its colonies maintaining its standard of living, are enemies. It is time that learned to live with the rest of the world like just another country and not the country. Hurray for Russia.

Russia exposed America!!!
written by flanx, September 22, 2008

America's double standard has been exposed..
1. The Kosovo independence
2. Expansion of Nato to encircle Russia

America's power no more... their economy is low..their forces is about to find an exit strategy in Iraq and Afghanistan (they are losing the war)

Cold War is coming...

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