Russia reacted with great speed to Georgia’s fatal incursion into South Ossetia; the break-away territory that Georgia claims as its territory. This shocked the Americans. But what is more shocking is the stories that keep coming out of the massive errors made by Washington in this conflict it generated.

The White House was miscalculated in its military conflict with Afghanistan and Iraq – two areas where wars are still waging with no end in sight. By pressing Georgia to send its troops into South Ossetia, the White House thought it could put Russia in a check mate situation right at its own borderline.

President Mikhail Saakashvili too was probably betrayed by the Americans as he would have felt the latter would enter the conflict to save Georgia from losing the war it launched against the break-away state.

The Bush administration decried Russia’s use of strategic bombers and ballistic missiles in the conflict against Georgia, saying it was a ‘dangerous escalation’ of hostilities. Either the Bush regime was unprepared for such a Russian forceful impact or it is clearly out of touch and of times by thinking Russia is now only a small military player on the planet?

The protracted war of words between Russia and Georgia was to end up in something military but no one expected Georgia to start the conflict by attacking the rebel state. South Ossetia has been struggling for its independence since the break down of the USSR and the downfall of communism in Moscow.

Georgia, with a pro-Western president Saakashvili in charge since 2003, has made it clear it wanted to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) in a bid to strengthen its position towards two break away states – south Ossetia and Abkhazia – which are mostly considered to be more Russian than anything.

The Americans expected the war to continue for days, with the Russians possibly attacking Georgian forces within the territorial space of South Ossetia after which they would have offered their ‘strategic’ mediation. But when Russia enlarged the conflict to attacks Georgian targets, the American strategy to keep Russia guessing what Washington will do have failed.

For Washington it is now question of whether it will bring Nato to aid Georgia, given the fact that Georgia’s military forces are definitely of no match to the Russians. There have been talks of Washington offering help to Georgia – US military help and weapons upgrade from Washington – but this too came under serious doubt with Russia’s quick military tactic of encircling Georgia from the sea.

US forces, around 130 military personnel, has been in Georgia to train the troops of the republic for its force in Iraq and for Georgian defense. There is no indication that the US will be able to increase the troop level on Georgian soil, a move that may be seen as a direct American involvement in the conflict between Georgia and Russia.

Dmitry Rogozin, Russia’s ambassador to NATO, stated Saturday that Russia was not at war with Georgia. The official said that there would be no cease-fire until Georgia withdrew its troops from South Ossetia.

Rogozin urged NATO not to interfere in the conflict and added that Russia entered S.Ossetia to protect its nationals.

However, it is clear to us that the Americans are not ready to be involved in a massive military conflict with Russia since the Russians may eventually invade Georgia. There is also no certainty that Georgian forces on the ground would be able to contain any Russian incursions inside Georgia.

To many observers, the military build-up in the conflict matters little. What matters most is the message that Russia is sending to the West.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev summed this message up best: “Historically Russia has been, and will continue to be, a guarantor of security for peoples of the Caucasus.”

With the Georgian attack in Ossetia, Moscow has been given a perfect opportunity to put it clearly to the Americans and to Nato forces by declaring the Caucasus to be part of its sphere of influence.

This is the first major Russian intervention since the fall of the Soviet Union and this is on a new order of confidence in Moscow. It is also a message to the west that Russia is still here, stronger than it was after the immediate fall of communism and that the Nato will have to lay off any plans to bring Georgia in as a new member of the military organization.

In the west, the Russian response to Georgia’s military faux pas will be that Russia has forced itself into the conflict in a bid to isolate the rise of democracy in Georgia. The west always has to use one or another reason to blame other nations, non-western nations indeed, for the faults that can be found with democracy.

Russia’s response in the Ossetia conflict will also force the US to re-think its missile programme that it is trying to establish at the foot of Russia geographic and geopolitical sphere of influence.

Nevertheless, it shows that Bush and his colleagues in the White House are real war mongers who will not stop at nothing to try the military option first and then criticize others for their reaction to the military options.

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Russia is back?
written by observers, August 13, 2008

It would be good to see Russia back as the other super power. That would bring more balance of power in the world...imagine! no cold wars but a powerful Russia to check and balance the immoral US.

It is back
written by observers, September 08, 2008

We can see the changes in the world. Russia is really back and hope it stays back on top.

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