Some neoconservatives (neocons) in Washington are obsessed with attacking Iran before President Bush leaves office at the end of this year. Hence, they have been pushing the Bush administration for increased economic and political isolation of Iran in order to weaken its current regime. Crucial to this plan is the support of Turkey, a traditional U.S. ally and an increasingly critical player in the region. But to the enormous frustration of the neocons, such an attack does not align with Turkey's interests given its newly enhanced regional ties, maturing democracy, and new foreign policy.  

  Turkey's transformation

  After the Justice and Development Party, or AKP, came to power in 2002, Turkey's role evolved from an introverted peripheral country to a significant country with a regional and global influence. “As a major country with a historical and strategic depth in the midst of the Afro-Eurasia landmass, Turkey is a central country with multiple regional identities that cannot be reduced to one unified category. In terms of its sphere of influence, Turkey is a Middle Eastern, Balkan, Caucasian, Central Asian, Caspian, Mediterranean, Gulf and Black Sea country all at the same time,” said Ahmet Davutoglu, the intellectual architect of the new multi-dimensional foreign policy, during an interview on CNN-Türk on Jan. 2. A fundamental principle of the new approach is a “zero problems with the neighbors” rule, which has improved diplomatic relations with all of Turkey's neighbors – most notably Syria, Georgia, and Bulgaria – and boosted trade volumes as well. The share of Turkey's trade volume with neighboring nations increased from 6 percent of the total foreign trade volume in 2000 to 35 percent in 2007. In addition, a significant Turkish-Iranian rapprochement has taken place, not only because of Iran's policy against the PKK, but also because of Turkey's growing energy needs. Trade volume with Iran alone increased from $1 billion in 2000 to over $8 billion in 2007. And the Turkish government signed agreements to invest $10 billion in Iran's energy sector in the next few years. Although Turkey's enhanced ties with Iran and Syria have caused concern in certain quarters of Washington, this change – stemming from a transparent diversification of Turkish policy – has not distanced Turkey from the West and Israel. However, Turkey's clear lack of interest in isolating Iran has prompted neocon hardliners, led by former assistant secretary of defense Richard Perle, to undertake a smear campaign against the ruling AKP.  

  Neocon attack

  Frank Gaffney, Daniel Pipes, and Michael Rubin, three leading neocon writers, have published pieces equating Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with far-right ultra-nationalist politicians such as France's Jean-Marie Le Pen, Austria's Joerg Haider, and even Osama bin Laden. They have accused the AKP and Erdoğan not only of having a hidden agenda to turn Turkey into an Islamic state, but also of paving the way for an Iranian-style Islamic revolution by Fethullah Gülen, a prominent religious leader known for his moderate views. Moreover, Rubin defended both the case to shut down the ruling AKP and the coup launched by the Turkish military last year as democratic. Their arguments went largely ignored in Washington, since they are in clear conflict with U.S. foreign policy. However, they were applauded in Turkey by the hawkish wing of the military General Staff and the extreme secularists.

  The neocon campaign has had two goals. The first has been to team up with anti-democratic powers within Turkey, primarily some circles within the military as well as the state and the political system, to oust the democratically elected government. A less democratic Turkey with a more dominant and politically active military would be more susceptible to neocon pressure to support a U.S. attack on Iran.

  The second goal has been to strengthen the Israeli-Turkish alliance by boosting the influence of the more Israel-friendly military circles within Turkish politics. Not surprisingly, in order to strengthen the position of the military in Turkish society, the neocons have not hesitated to support a Turkish incursion into northern Iraq to hunt down PKK terrorists.

  Neocons have had a deep interest in Turkey. In the past, Perle has been involved in some lucrative consulting deals and has made some very high-level friends in Turkey. In 1986, he became the co-chair, along with the Turkish General Staff, of the U.S.-Turkish consultative defense group. From 1989 to 1994, he worked as an adviser for the International Advisors Inc., or IAI, a lobbying firm started by Douglas Feith and registered as Turkey's foreign agent with the Justice Department. Perle is also known as the key architect of the Israeli-Turkish alliance of the late 1990s. This alliance has resulted in close military cooperation between the two countries, and Turkey has been an important customer of Israel's defense industry.

Shifting geopolitics

  Turkey is no longer dependent entirely on the United States for its geopolitical position. In addition to economic and military power, the appeal of Turkey's soft power has increased thanks to its political and economic domestic reforms and its new perceived image in the neighboring regions as a good example of the coexistence of Islam with democracy and modernity.

  Turkey has been playing a key mediating role in several conflicts, including those between Syria and Israel, between Palestine and Israel, and in Lebanon. Syria and Israel just had their third round of indirect talks under Turkey's mediation in Istanbul. Similarly, the Ankara Forum had several meetings to bring the private sectors of Israel and Palestine together. It also hosted a meeting between the Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli President Shimon Peres in November 2007.

  After the 2006 Lebanon war, the AKP government decided to send 1,000 troops – one of the largest contributions – to the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon despite harsh domestic opposition. Also, during the recent Lebanon crisis in May, Turkey played the mediator role between the Shia opposition and the Sunni establishment. Its balanced policy toward each group also secured Turkey an active role in bridging the Sunni-Shia divide in Iraq in 2007. It has similarly worked behind the scenes in Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan on peace-building efforts. In fact, Turkey is now the only country that enjoys good relations with every country in the Middle East.

  As a result of Turkey's opening to Africa in 2005, the African Union declared Turkey a strategic partner after China, India, and Japan in January. More importantly, Turkey is now a U.N. Security Council candidate for 2009-2010; this is an important position where Turkey can use its current experience as a promoter of stability and democracy on a broader level, especially in bridging the divide between East and West.

  Turkey's good-neighbor policy doesn't extend in every direction. Cross-border operations in Iraq, the Cyprus issue – despite a significant rapprochement with Greece –and the historical dispute with Armenia still pose major potential setbacks.

  Moreover, the transformation in foreign policy depends in part on continuity in domestic reforms. The biggest challenge is the Constitutional Court's recent attempt to shut down the governing AKP. If the AKP is shut down, all of the aforementioned achievements and policy changes will be overturned.

Neocon effort self-destructive

  The teaming up of U.S. neoconservatives with pro-military and anti-AKP circles in Turkey in an effort to topple the Erdoğan government is self-destructive and has little chance of success, given popular support for a stronger and more pluralistic democracy in Turkey. Moreover, such neoconservative manipulations taint the image of the United States in Turkey, even at a time now when the Bush administration is distancing itself from many neoconservative positions.

  The Bush-Erdoğan summit in Washington in November 2007 marked the beginning of a new era in U.S.-Turkish relations. The Bush administration put pressure on Congress to squelch a resolution calling on Ankara to acknowledge the Armenian genocide, and Turkey got a more sympathetic audience for its security concerns related to the PKK in northern Iraq. Both sides now keep communication channels open in order to avoid the kind of dips in relations that have taken place in the past.

  It is in U.S. interest for Turkey to play an expanded peacemaking role in the region. But for Turkey to do so, it must continue on its current path of democratic reform. By supporting the military's return in Turkey and a more hard-line approach to Iran, U.S. neoconservatives want to turn the clock back on Turkish reform and plunge the entire region into even greater charter.

  Avni Doğru is a Foreign Policy In Focus (FPIF) analyst based in New York. This is a shortened version of an article that recently appeared on FPIF.   

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