The largest political organization in Malaysia, Umno or United Malays National Organization (Umno) is facing a desperate political battle that could decide on its future. Umno has always survived the political ramifications that shook it over the years but something is amiss in the current situation. Almost sunken by Anwar Ibrahim, the party now needs a new battle horse to resurface and dominate.

Its leading role in the Parliament is being questioned by Barisan National (BN) partners while on the ground it has lost the battle with the Party Keadilaan Rakyat (PKR) and the Party Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS). The good performance from the PKR-PAS and Democratic Action Party (DAP) coalition after 100 days in power in the ‘opposition’ states rings trouble for Umno.

Is the Umno heading for the opposition, bringing 79 Malay Member of Parliament (MP) with it and dividing the nation further? Any political move by the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) to seize power without the Umno or a substantial number of Umno members will equal to sending the Malay-Muslim majority of the country in the opposition. This is a situation that has not been seen before in the 51 years history of Independent Malaysia.

The oil price increase, a very unpopular move by the Abdullah Ahmad Badawi regime, has strengthened the Pakatan and has definitely turned the people further away from Umno and the BN. Malaysia’s melting pot is today made of racism, money matters and a crime unsolved. This leaves the Umno leadership with too little cards in its hands to duck the Pakatan bullet on September 16^th.

The intensity of the growing unpopularity of the Umno is bigger than in the ‘reformasi’ days and fresh elections – which would be a folly indeed for the current government – would surely result in the downfall of the BN and the Umno.

The Pakatan’s credibility is revolved around the aura and charisma of Anwar Ibrahim, the one-time top gun of the Umno turned slayer of the mighty Malay political organization. Anwar can still bring the Umno down if he succeeds in courting BN members into jumping the band wagon to form a new government and give birth to a new Malaysia. However, this task is not as easy as it look since it involves the element of race.

With the PKR reinforced by crossing over BN members, there is the risk that a non-Malay majority government may be formed with the help of the Pas and the Dap. The PKR has 31 MP’s, the DAP 28 and the PAS 23. The Pakatan, if it is reinforced by non-Malay crossovers from the BN, will become the first non-Malay majority government in power in Malaysia.

Anwar Ibrahim has to maneuver very carefully in these rough waters in order to keep the Malay establishment at bay if he is to become the Prime Minister of Malaysia with a majority of Malay MP’s in the opposition.

On the other hand, it is surprising that the Umno and the BN has already succumbed to the threats of crossovers from the Pakatan and its defacto leader Anwar Ibrahim. In a Parliamentary system like Malaysia it is possible for the Pakatan to move the seats from the BN in its favor but the reverse also will then be acceptable. The Umno or the BN may work harder to bring disgruntled Pakatan MP’s to join the government’s ranks.

Nevertheless, due to the economic situation with the oil price increase in particular, Pakatan MP’s may find it ridiculous to leave the opposition to join the Umno or the BN and gain temporary windfalls only to be wiped out in the next general elections.

Despite a floodgate of adverse criticism, the Abdullah Badawi regime has a solid reform plan that it is implementing. It is this plan that has caused the sudden resignation of Tun Mahathir from the Umno and is causing strains in the BN. The PM’s reform plans are Islamic in nature as they primarily intended to bring Islamic principles right into the folds of public life.

These reforms has an appeal towards the Malay-Muslim majority of the Malaysian population and it is not surprising that the Umno managed to do even much better than expected in the last General Elections. As a matter of fact, the Umno was expected to lose more seats and to be reduced to rubble but the party did better in the wake of its junior partners which were trashed in the process.

Umno can still attempt at wooing the Pas and other Malay-Muslim MP’s in the Parliament to join its reform agenda in exchange of an openness on the ‘hudud’ and other ‘Islamic’ issues. It is already known that the PAS is listening to offers from the Umno to further its ‘Islamic’ agenda, an agenda that will not find light if the PAS was to stick its gun with the PKR-DAP union.

The PAS has no reason to abandon its Islamic agenda since this will mean getting it fired from Kedah, Kelantan and Perak in the next general elections. With Anwar Ibrahim, formerly a staunch Islamic leader turned ‘democrat’ ala-American, the PAS has reasons to listen to the whispers of the Umno to form an Islamic coalition in Parliament.

This will be the ultimate weapon that the Umno can use to weather through the tsunami that is waiting for it at the corner. Since it is farfetched to believe that the PAS will leave the Pakatan to re-join the BN, then perhaps the Umno will eventually break the BN to formally create an ‘Islamic’ alliance with the PAS and Malay-Muslim members of the PKR in a bid to defeat the ‘democratic’ agenda of Anwar Ibrahim.

The Umno, PAS and crossing over Muslim MP’s could hold a sound number of seats in the Parliament which could be reinforced by other BN MP’s that would be too willing to join the ‘new’ coalition with the Umno-PAS in the leadership role.

Hence, it is for Anwar Ibrahim to demonstrate his skills by keeping the PAS in the Pakatan while sweetening Umno MP’s into supporting his leadership in the Pakatan and his eventual take over as Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Yet, one major element in the political quick sand of Malaysia remains unsolved and it is the election of Anwar Ibrahim to the Parliament. Anwar has to solve this mystery first before he is able to claim victory and lead a new government since he will not be Prime Minister if he is not elected.

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Pas n Umno
written by zakiri, July 26, 2008

at last PAS n Umno decided to tell the truth about their meetings....but will these meetings end up in a sort of arrangement between the two parties? That remains to be seen. What can be said is that it is a positive move though Pas should be careful when threading with umnoputra's!

No new PM in the near future
written by Mastajoe, September 05, 2008

I waited for a few months to see the outcome of the Permatang Pauh by-election .It happened and as expected Anwar Ibrahim was elected with good majority . But as time goes by , there is no big ruffle in the Parliament .Anwar was elected to be a member of Parliament cum Leader of the Opposition. We are yet to hear any news about the BN MPs crossing over to Pakatan Rakyat. Before the by-election Anwar boasted that 30 BN MPs are waiting to cross over . I think his waiting now is no better than his waiting during Dr.Mahadhir's period. "Patience is part of Iman ." He liked to bulldoze himself in order to achieve his aim. I don't think he will get the support of Pas leaders . How can a man with American dreams and Zionist approach get the approaval from the Islamic scholars and leaders. Christians and Zionists didn't go together with Muslim ideologies and practices. I hope Anwar will not hold any more public demonstrations if he can"t achieve to be PM . Let the people decide because Malaysians are now good and mature enough to choose their PM. At the moment I can't see yet who is the best person to replace our former Tun Dr.Mahadhir Muhamad : not Anwar nor .... Learn to be patience and more Islamic .

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