Malaysia is inevitably living tense moments with the Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi rolling back his retirement plan into a shorter term and opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim laying off on his deadline to take power. These however are compensated by the slow but sure rise of Najib Tun Razak, the deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance as the next Prime Minister.

Deputy Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak

It is the rise of the future PM that is of interest to foreign investors and the establishment in the country more than the usual rhetoric of who is a better Prime Minister or even who has more popular support. The transition of power is to the deputy PM’s advantage indeed.

Malaysians has a peculiar way of appreciation of politics and it is quite unique hence it is this unique, original way that will make Najib Tun Razak the strong man of the country. Unlike Indonesia or Singapore where people are more skeptical on the emergence of a new Prime Minister or President, Malaysians tend to embrace their new leader with huge trust on the one hand and benefit of the doubt on the other.

When former Prime Minister Tun Mahathir Mohamed was to resign and pass the baton of leadership to Abdullah Badawi, the country was reeling in confidence and trust in the new man in power. The new PM’s popularity ratings rocketed even more than that of Tun Mahathir anytime during his 22 years of rule over the country. Abdullah Badawi even led the Barisan National (BN) government to a tremendous historic victory in the 2004 elections, thrashing almost all the opposition parties in the process.

The same theory may surface when Najib Tun Razak take over as Prime Minister in 2009 – the expected date for the departure of Malaysia’s fifth Prime Minister – and it will be a boost for the current government under his leadership, as he will get support from several quarters.

Despite being seen as lesser capable a Prime Minister than the opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim in a recent survey carried out by the Merdeka Centre this week, Najib will surely enjoy the support from both the establishment and the business class. He will also gain support from a significant sector of the population with Malay-Muslims trusting him with their faith in his abilities to run the country well.

As Prime Minister he will be expected to do better than the current PM and to correct the wrong path taken by the Barisan National (BN) and the country as a whole after the 2008 General Elections and the subsequent devastating events that followed.

No doubt he will bear the legacy of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi on his back since he will inherit the bad image of the current regime but will surely earn the respect of many if he stifles the economy – which is still the major concern for a majority of Malaysians – while he will still be seen as the very last frontier of Malay political dominance in Malaysia.

With his credentials as the son of a former Prime Minister Tun Abdul Razak who is known as the father of the country’s development, and his consistency in holding important cabinet posts where he delivered in his job; Najib was always a promising and potential Prime Minister of the country. Destiny may now be knocking at his doors despite the tough battle he has to fight against a superbly organized and much stronger opposition against his becoming Prime Minister.

On a more logical point, it is certain that a new Prime Minister will not use tough laws against his opponents and this will be the case for Najib Tun Razak who made it clear after his party’s defeat in the by-elections in Permatang Pauh in August this year against Anwar Ibrahim that he has understood the message from the people. He added that he will do all in his capacity to reverse the string of bad luck that has struck the Barisan National and the United Malays National Organization (Umno).

I believe that he has to be taken by his words and as Prime Minister he will do his utmost to clean the rot that has settled in the ruling coalition. It is also logical to believe that no new Prime Minister will step into troubled waters and Malaysia is currently laden with hot spots with the distribution of wealth, the challenges against the position of the Malays in the country and the race relations that are churning into boiling points.

Judging by his various statements in the recent weeks, it is clear that Prime Minister Najib will strive hard to fix the economy too. Though he is a believer in the lessening of subsidies and may not really support a ‘welfare state’, he might bring more relief to the people but in different ways. To compensate the population, he may also act to correct the high inflation by putting more controls on prices and will surely be brought to understand the need to re-peg the Ringgit.

Here I think of the possibility of a ‘currency basket’ in which the foreign currencies will be controlled by the Bank Negara. That may help boost exports from Malaysia while it will limit the impact of the rising US and Singapore dollars, for example, on the nations importations. This is what the future pegging will be about, to control the fall of the Ringgit if the economic situation is affected by the global financial chaos.

If the economic situation deteriorates globally, Najib might offer ‘bail-outs’ to Government and Umno linked companies, which might raise eyebrows but then in the current situation of global economic chaos, such bail-outs will become necessary for a number of reasons. It will help keep jobs, stabilize local investments and keep the local bourses running smoothly.

Nevertheless, the economic solutions will be that of the Najib Tun Razak era and it will be interesting to see how he handles these problems. He will also be hard pressed by the business community to bring in the much needed Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) which is currently at its lowest in the country. In that respect he could perhaps look more towards the Arab world, China, Russia and India to source the FDI’s since the US is clearly down and almost out for the time being. During his tenure, he will inherit the good work done by the Abdullah Badawi government in enhancing and consolidating the Islamic economy and I believe that is also part of the plan by Najib.

Prime Minister-to-be Najib Razak will have to offer solutions and as he said it himself, he is willing to work with the opposition, the ‘forces vives’ – translate civil forces – and the communities in the country to fix the huge fissures that has appeared in Malaysia since 2004. Rather than meddle in the hot spots and the melting pots, Najib Tun Razak will have to strengthen race relations and to do this he will need more than the BN. The views of the entire populace of Malaysia will be salient for him to rectify the tense relationship that has been building among the various races but in particular against the Malay-Muslims.

One thing that many observers seem to overlook is that it is not the Chinese or the Indian communities that are facing pressures but it is the Malay-Muslims majority that is being challenged left and right and at times from within to forgo their political power and their economic protection. The pressure is on the Malay-Muslims to open up, to allow the other races to benefit from the goodies that the country has to offer.

It appears that the future PM will be committed to changes in the country and will not sit back and let the civil societies attack his government on press freedom, freedom of religion and surely not freedom of speech and of association. Malaysia may eventually be heading for a period of cooling with more openness and a more liberal attitude by the Malay power base towards other races in a bid to diffuse the already over heated race relation. True it is that he will have to deal with the ghosts of the Mongollian murder that has haunted him since 2006 yet it will be dishonest to state that so far, the Umno and the BN as well as a majority of Malaysians does not see this as an impediment for his accession to the Prime Minister post.

The opposition will not sit back and allow Najib to relax as they will up the pressure on the need for more freedoms and for the tearing down of the Internal Security Act (ISA), an act that Najib might be forced to use in the event the situation goes out of hand. How will Najib react to these pressures is not possible for the observers to state here. It will only be seen as and when such pressures build up in the future. Or will he? There is also the possibility that he might not use the harsh laws after all since he will be fresh in command and will get massive support from Malay-Muslims as well as from the business community locally and potential foreign investors altogether .

Nevertheless, all this will be watershed if Anwar Ibrahim and the opposition in Malaysia make true to their words that sooner than 2009, they will be in power, which will nullify Najib's chances to become the 6th Prime Minister of Malaysia.

Comments (7)

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You must be dreaming!!!
written by a1, October 01, 2008

You must be dreaming!!! Tell this to the dead Altantuya. Najib will be the worst, the most corrupt PM you will ever see. Don't believe me? His C4 will explain to you.

Thanks
written by Kazi Mahmood, October 01, 2008

Hi A1...thanks for not agreeing. Yet we are more closer to reality here than most people who are day dreaming about changes and so on. We do not talk the emotional talk, we do the professional job. Appreciate your dropping by and come again...if you want to get in touch with reality.

maybe he can, likely he can't
written by doinkers, October 08, 2008

I was about to post something similar to A1, but thanks Kazi for reminding me to keep my emotions in check.

When he does become the PM, he'll be carrying a huge political baggage with him. C4 anyone? Or lets look back further. Anyone remember lets bath the keris with chinese blood? Chinese community still waiting for that apology or has that issue been convenient forgotten and merely the ramblings of a insane conspiracy theorist.

If our future PM thinks he has the chops to man up to the job, pls answer a few simple questions when he was defense minister...
1) where's our sukhoi jets? what airbase are they stationed? how much is it costing us annually to maintain the planes?

2) where's our submarine? Yes, the one that allegedly got a former mongollian model / translator... C4-ed. Where is our sub? Where will the submarine be bearth? How much are we going to pay for the construction of a submarine bearth? How much are we going to pay annually to maintain the sub? How much to train the sailors manning our sub? Last I check, I don't remember Msia having any submarine schools. Heck we even had to send our "angkasawan" to Russia for training.


Call me a dreamer, but at this juncture of history, i'd take my chances with the devil that i don't know... Anwar ibrahim. Prison didn't break him, instead in moulded him the the golden boy he is today. Though on personal note, i'd wish he stop harping on 'We have the numbers'.

Thanks doinkers
written by Kazi Mahmood, October 08, 2008

Thanks for not being too emotional. I understand your views. Its the views of many people. However, as far as I can see, there is a long road to walk before things happens in Malaysia. Unless...well we wait and see.

I really appreciate that you did not go on an outburst. We write very differently from other blogs, sites because of our formation as Journalists. Put together all our journalists here, we have something like a hundred (100) years of experience!

You are welcomed here anytime.

...
written by doinkers, October 09, 2008

good piece Kazi. I love it when the writers feedback on comments. Definately be visiting this place more often. Hope to you or another writer could do an analysis piece on Anwar ibrahim now that political power has shifted within the UMNO ranks. Will he still be able to be a PM?

Though personally, I think his window of opportunity is gone. With Badawi gone, he's back to facing a united UMNO. I would have really love to see Badawi standing for election. He makes good cannon fodder.

We now have one on PM
written by Kazi Mahmood, October 09, 2008

Thanks for visiting...we now have an analysis on PM and his future resignation...

Soon enough we will do one on Anwar, we do have plans for that. Keep checking us.

NEW PM
written by jerry, November 06, 2008

At a time in this global crisis of economic downturn & recession,Malaysians are doomed if they have to get anew PM who is none other than Najib,who was linked to the murder of Altantuya;how pathetic.At this point of time,Malaysians should learn to throw away the race & religion scenario if they are to emerge from this global crisis;the fate is in their own hands;if they choose to be racist & extremists then there is no one to rectify;even Allah cant help if they dont even know what they are believing or rather preaching;they dont seem to practise what they preach;how pathetic!Insyah Allah guidance is forthcoming;otherwise we are bound for disaster!

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